An Forecasting Platform Participant Earned $436,000 from Wagers Predicting Maduro's Downfall.
A bettor made nearly half a million dollars by predicting the removal of Venezuela's president just before it was officially announced, sparking debate about whether someone profited from non-public details of the US operation.
Sudden Shift in Wagers
Predictions made on the forecasting site, a crypto-powered platform, that the Venezuelan president would be no longer in control by the end of January increased in the time leading up to former President Trump stated on Saturday that Maduro had been apprehended.
A single trader, which became a member in December and took four positions, all on the Venezuelan situation, made more than $436,000 from a starting bet of $32.5K.
Who placed the bet is a mystery. The user had only a string of letters and numbers for identification.
Odds Fluctuate Before News Break
Market statistics shows that participants put the odds of the president's removal at just a low 6.5 percent in the midday period of the Friday before the event.
But the market's assessment had jumped to over 10% by the end of the day and surged in the first hours of Saturday, suggesting a sharp shift in positions just before the social media post was made.
"This particular bet has all the signs of a trade based on non-public details," commented an industry expert.
Several of other platform users also profited significant sums from predicting the capture.
Regulatory Scrutiny Emerges
Elected officials are beginning to pay attention.
A bill put forward on recently seeks to ban government employees from placing bets on prediction markets if they have "material nonpublic information" related to a wager.
Market Background
Forecasting platforms have grown significantly in the past few years, with traders able to wager on everything from sports outcomes to politics.
Prediction markets faced scrutiny under the last presidential term. However it has found a more favorable environment during the current presidency.
Using confidential knowledge is against the law in the stock market, but there are fewer regulations in the forecasting space.
An official representative for another major platform said their site "explicitly prohibits such activities of any form."
